Newsletter to the ANES User Community Original Document Date: April 6, 1994 Date of this Revision: April 7, 1994 Filename: \ftp\announce\newsltr\ltr40694.wp Source: ftp.electionstudies.org Date: April 6, 1994 To: Social Scientists Who Use the National Election Studies From: David C. Leege, Chair, ANES Board of Overseers Charles H. Franklin, Chair, 1994 ANES Study Planning Committee Subject: Designation of "Core" Questions to be Asked on the 1994 ANES Post-Election Study In the weeks following the November 1994 general elections, the American National Election Studies will conduct its 23rd biennial study of the American electorate. As in midterm Studies conducted since 1958, the 1994 ANES will employ a single, post-election survey to interview face-to-face for 70-minutes 1750 citizens of voting age. Roughly one-third of those questioned will be respondents first interviewed in the 1992 Election Study and interviewed again in the 1993 ANES Pilot Study. ANES will conduct the other two-thirds of the interviews with a freshly drawn, cross-section sample, randomly selected from a probability, multi-staged, clustered sample of national households. Planning for the 1994 Study has been underway for over a year, beginning with the development and testing of new instrumentation in the 1993 Pilot Study. Both topical content and items were suggested by the ANES user community. The Board has reviewed initial analyses of Pilot items, and a Planning Committee will meet in April to draft the questionnaire that the ANES Board of Overseers will review at its June 1994 meeting. At the heart of the 1994 Study will be a set of "core" questions that ANES has asked in Election Studies conducted since 1952. We are writing to enlist your help in specifying exactly which core questions should be retained in the 1994 instrument. (By now, this is a familiar exercise to many of you.) The task of specifying the proportion of each study that should be devoted to extending time-series is always difficult. As a first step, the Board, at its March meeting, placed each item considered "core" in one of four broad categories, reflecting the item's priority for inclusion in the 1994 Study. These categories are: I. UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED by the Board for inclusion in the 1994 Post-Election Study. II. POSSIBLE (but not certain) inclusion. Items in this category received majority (but not unanimous) Board support. Some items were listed in this category because the Planning Committee anticipates modifications in wording. Persons who need these items, or need them in the exact original wording as asked in the past, should write to the Board. III. UNLIKELY to be included in the 1994 Study. Questions in this category were supported by less than a majority of the Board and will probably be dropped from the Study, unless the Board receives strong support for an item from the scholarly community. Persons who need these items should write to the Board. IV. OMITTED. Questions in this category did not receive support for inclusion from any member of the Board. The Board's recommendations concerning core questions are summarized in the enclosed document. If you would like a copy of the full, unabridged core document that includes the precise wording of every question, please download a copy from the ANES anonymous FTP server. The filename is \ftp\studies\nes94\cor94com.wp. If you cannot access the unabridged core document via FTP, please contact the ANES Project Staff (by phone, email, or U.S. Mail) and they will send you a copy. (The phone numbers and addresses appear at the end of this memo.) The Board invites you to review its recommendations and to submit short memoranda to the Board recommending the retention of specific questions if they are critical to your own research and their continuation in 1994 may be in some jeopardy. Given the unavoidable competition between continuity and new question content, the Board has asked that each such memorandum include the explicit scientific or analytic justification for continuing a given question. One issue confronting the 1994 Planning Committee concerns the wording and format of the House vote choice item. There is substantial evidence that the wording and format used since 1978 contributes to an overestimate of support for the incumbent. On the other hand, the pre-1978 wording gets the aggregate support right but exaggerates the effect of partisanship. The 1994 Planning Committee is considering what to do about this and would welcome suggestions from the user community. Currently, the options appear to be 1) continue the post-1978 wording in 1994, 2) revert to the pre-1978 wording, 3) use a split-sample design in 1994 to allow an explicit comparison of the two formats (but at the cost of small samples on each form and possible damage to the comparability of the panel component linking 1992-93-94). Other options may also arise. To help the Planning Committee obtain a sense of the opinions among the user community, a special meeting has been arranged for the Midwest Political Science Association meetings. This meeting will take place on Friday, April 15, from 4:00-5:30 in Clark 10 (one of the 7th floor meeting rooms at the Palmer House). All interested users are invited to attend. Members of the Planning Committee will present the evidence and the options and open the floor for discussion of the alternatives. Beyond the continuation of core, the 1994 Study has several other objectives related to the political circumstances of this election. From the perspective of coalition maintenance, 1994 is likely to be a special political moment, one portentous for the future electoral success not only of the Democratic and Republican parties but of third party challenges as well. Accordingly, the 1994 ANES will assess how well Clinton has held together or expanded his political coalition over his first two years in office. The 1994 survey will re-ask batteries of items from the 1992 and 1993 Studies to provide an opportunity for social scientists to identify forces that are driving constituencies in and out of the Clinton and Perot coalitions. Due to a combination of redistricting, scandal, and retirement, the 1992 House elections replaced more than one-quarter of the House -- the most in nearly half a century. This turnover provides an opportunity to examine the ways in which newly elected members build a relationship with their constituents during the first term in office and secure their districts against challenge in the next election. Although we know that incumbent advantage accrues quickly (it is well-established, perhaps established in full, by completion of the first term in office), is the incumbency advantage secured by the actions that members of Congress engage in during their first term of office, or is it secured because of their first re-election campaign? The 1992-93-94 panel data will provide sharp tests of these two alternatives by permitting detailed analysis of the processes by which newly-elected Representatives (compared to returning incumbents) shore up their support during their first term in office. Panel data will provide a way to assess how citizens learn and forget about candidates following an election, and how constituents form impressions of new Representatives. We anticipate that the 1994 Study Planning Committee will also build upon new questions on health care reform developed in the 1993 NES Pilot Study. While space will be extremely scarce, there may be some topics or instrument modifications that can be addressed only in the context of an election, not an off-year Pilot Study. Members of the ANES user community may wish to alert the Board to such opportunities. Please send your memoranda to the National Election Studies, Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research, Room 4026, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248. You can also reach the ANES by email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by Fax at 734-764-3341. Please respond if you have any concerns over new content by April 20 in time for the Planning Committee meeting. If your concerns rest with the core items, please respond by May 18 to ensure that the Board will have an opportunity to review your recommendations at its June 3 meeting. We look forward to your suggestions and advice. SUMMARY OF ANES BOARD OF OVERSEERS RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING CORE QUESTIONS TO APPEAR ON THE 1994 NATIONAL ELECTION STUDY I. PARTISANSHIP RANKED I: Party Likes/Dislikes; Party Identification; Party Differences; party more likely to raise taxes RANKED II: Which party more conservative; Which party do better job on (Several issues). RANKED III: Recall of parents' partisanship II. CANDIDATES AND INCUMBENT EVALUATIONS RANKED I: Thermometer ratings of President, congressional, Senate candidates, parties; Congressional candidate likes/dislikes; Presidential approval on handling job, economy, relations with foreign countries; approve of Congressional performance; approve of Representatives' handling of job; recall of congressional candidates candidate initiated contact with respondent; respondent initiated contact with representative RANKED II: Traits and affects evaluation for Bill Clinton; remember how Representative voted on particular bill; remember anything special Representative has done for this district; recall of Senate candidates III. ISSUES A. Placements: The CORE document does not address the question of which objects are to be placed on which issues. (Convey your sentiments to the Board.) B. Social Welfare RANKED I: Job and good standard of living (7-pt scale), spending and services (7-pt. scale) RANKED II: How R would change federal program spending; gov't vs. private health care plans (7pt-scale) C. Attitudes toward Race and Racial Policy RANKED I: Government aid blacks (7-point scale); how much change in position of black people RANKED II: Civil rights people push too fast; racial policy on school integration and fair employment; affirmative action on hiring and promotion, college admissions D. Economic Evaluations RANKED I: National retrospective economic evaluation; personal retrospective economic evaluation RANKED II: Family income kept pace with inflation; economic policies of federal government made R, and the nation, better or worse off; inflation, unemployment better or worse in the nation; prospective economic evaluation for individual, nation; limit imports from Japan? RANKED III: Condition of economy in this state E. Foreign Relations RANKED I: U.S. position in world weaker/stronger; U.S. better off to stay home? RANKED II: War worries, conventional and nuclear; Republicans or Democrats better at keeping out of war; cooperate more or get tougher in dealing with Russia F. Social Issues RANKED I: When should abortion be legal RANKED II: Women have equal role (7-pt scale); opinion on school prayer; favor/oppose death penalty G. Miscellaneous Issues RANKED I: What is most important problem facing country RANKED II: Follow-ons to most important problem; most important issue in House campaign; government too powerful; country on right/wrong track IV. IDEOLOGY AND VALUES RANKED I: Liberal/Conservative views (7-pt scale); born-again Christian; religion important, provide guidance; how describe denomination; religious practices; Bible fundamentalism RANKED II: Equalitarianism battery; moral traditionalism battery; racial prejudice battery V. MASS SUPPORT FOR THE POLITICAL SYSTEM RANKED I: Efficacy (people like me have no say; government too complicated; public officials don't care) RANKED II: Trust in government (waste money, are crooked, can be trusted to do right, government run by few big interests?); responsiveness (how much attention does government pay; do elections help responsiveness) RANKED III: If people don't care how election comes out, they shouldn't vote. VI. PARTICIPATION, INVOLVEMENT AND POLITICAL INFORMATION A. Interest and Involvement in Public Affairs and Current Campaign RANKED I: Follow public affairs; interest in campaign; which party most members in House/Senate; job of several public figures; institutional political knowledge; care who wins RANKED II: Talk politics B. Campaign Activities, Including Contributions RANKED I: Campaign activities: talk to people, wear button, attend meetings, any other work? anyone from parties, anyone else, talk to R about supporting candidates? campaign contributions: to candidate, to party, to any other group? RANKED II: Use the income tax checkoff RANKED III: Been solicited for contributions in person, by mail, over the phone C. Voting Behavior RANKED I: Turnout/registration mobilization; did R vote in '94, is R registered; for whom did R vote for President in '92; congressional vote choice, Senate vote choice RANKED II: Vote in person or by absentee; county and state of registration if different than sample RANKED III: Strength of preference for congressional/Senate vote choice VII. MEDIA RANKED II: Television: days last week watched TV news; attention to news about campaigns, watch any programs about campaign; Newspaper: days last week read paper, read about campaigns, how much attn to articles re: campaign; listen to speeches or discussions on radio; read about campaigns in any magazines VIII. SOCIAL GROUPS RANKED II: v Feeling thermometers for groups IX. PERSONAL DATA RANKED I: Age, marital status, education ( R and Spouse), work status, occupation, (R and spouse), employed by government, worried about job; belong to labor union, subjective social class, church attendance, denominational affiliation, ethnicity, residence when growing up, mobility, any children, their ages. RANKED II: parents' occupation RANKED III: Whether any children live with R at least half the time ANES ON-LINE: THE ANES FTP SERVER April 6, 1994 The ANES FTP server ('File Transfer Protocol') is now on-line and available for anonymous FTP. The name for the server is 'ftp.electionstudies.org' (the IP address is 22.214.171.124). The server is an IBM-compatible 386 running the 'Serving-FTP' software of LanWorkplace for DOS. We established the server to increase the amount of information that the ANES Board of Overseers, the Principal Investigators, and the ANES Project Staff can provide the ANES user community. The FTP server currently contains a wide range of resources including an overview of each ANES data collection and study design; a list of topics and questions covered over the four decades of Election Studies; the updated Continuity Guide; details on sampling; information on the ANES Pilot Studies; a bibliography of data use; notices about upcoming studies, data releases and events; a listing of the ANES Pilot Study and Technical Reports which can be ordered in hardcopy format; the history and organization of ANES; instructions on how to access ANES data and contact ANES Project Staff and Board Members, and much, much more. (A full listing and short description of all the files that currently reside on the server appears below.) Additional files will be available in the near future. Many of these documents were created in response to suggestions that Official Representatives to the ICPSR made last October in a panel discussion on the American National Election Studies. Please comment on the materials that currently reside on the server and also advise us on what additional materials you would like us to provide on-line. Contact the ANES Project Staff by email (email@example.com), phone (734-764-5494), fax (734-764-3341) or U.S. mail (NES; CPS/ISR; Room 4026; P.O. Box 1248; Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248). Most files reside on the server in two formats: WordPerfect and ASCII. The WordPerfect versions of files are formatted much more extensively than the ASCII versions, and were created with a printer definition for the HP Laserjet IIIsi. The filenames for the WordPerfect versions of the files end with the extension .wp while the ASCII versions end with .txt. When downloading the WordPerfect versions, make sure to issue the command 'binary' before the 'get' command. How to Copy a File from our Computer to Yours FTP allows a user to easily copy, via the Internet, files from the ANES computer to your computer. FTP has been widely available at colleges and universities since the mid-1970's, though its use has been growing more widespread recently. FTP is quite simple to use. Basically, a user 1) connects to the ANES server by identifying our computer's name or its IP address (again, the name for the ANES server is 'ftp.electionstudies.org'); 2) changes into the desired subdirectory; 3) issues a 'get' command to retrieve a file; then 4) disconnects from the server and exits FTP. The following commands show how a user would download a copy of the file named '\datainfo\datalist.txt' which contains a listing of all ANES data files: Command Purpose ftp [to start the FTP software] open ftp.electionstudies.org [to connect to the ANES FTP server] anonymous [to login to the server] cd datainfo [to change to the subdirectory '\datainfo'] get datalist.txt [to retrieve the file named 'datalist.txt'] bye [to disconnect from the server and exit FTP] Here are some additional commands that can be used as needed: Command Purpose dir [to get a listing of files available in the subdirectory] cd
[to change into a particular subdirectory - e.g., 'cd announce' to change into the subdirectory named 'announce.'] cd .. [to change back up one level of subdirectories] binary [to switch to binary mode for downloading WordPerfect (.wp) files] ascii [to switch to ASCII mode for downloading text files (.txt) files. This is the default mode.] help [to get a list of available commands from the server] get - [to display the contents of a file on the screen rather than downloading the file. Only do this with files ending with the extension .txt. Note, this command may not work with some versions of ftp software.] We have reproduced below the contents of the file named index.wp, which gives the path, filename and a short description for all the files currently on the FTP server. This file will change over time as we add, delete and/or replace files on the server. A file named 'changes.wp' on the server provides a chronologically-based listing of these changes to the server. Files Currently Available on the ANES FTP Server Path & Filename Contents \ftp\index.wp This listing of all files & their contents \ftp\morehelp.wp How to get more help from the ANES Staff \ftp\changes.wp Changes to the FTP server - additions, deletions, \ftp\disclaim.wp Disclaimer, indemnifying ANES, NSF,CPS, ISR and UM \ftp\readme.wp Fileserver info; disclaimer \ftp\announce\icore\icorenew.wp ICORE newsletter \ftp\datainfo\datalist.wp A listing of all ANES datafiles \ftp\datainfo\topics.wp A guide to topics covered in the ANES data \ftp\datainfo\other\othrinfo.wp The other major data collections (e.g., Senate Study, Super-Tuesday ...) \ftp\datainfo\other\r&dinfo.wp Research & development studies (i.e., the Pilot Studies) \ftp\datainfo\timeseri\tsinfo.wp The 1952-1992 Time-Series data collections \ftp\datainfo\timeseri\dsignimp.wp Time-Series study design & implementation \ftp\datainfo\timeseri\cumudata.wp Information about the ANES Cumulative Datafile \ftp\datainfo\timeseri\dataqual.wp Data quality control efforts \ftp\howtoget\joinmail.wp How to get on the ANES mailing list \ftp\howtoget\orderdat.wp How to Get ANES Data and Documentation \ftp\howtoget\ordermtl.wp How to get other ANES study materials and resources \ftp\overview\overview.wp History of ANES; general info about the organization \ftp\overview\personnl.wp List of ANES Staff & Board, with contact info \ftp\overview\resorgan.wp Information about ANES the organization \ftp\overview\spproces.wp The ANES study planning process \ftp\resourcs\biblio\articles.wp Journal articles in the ANES Bibliography of Data Use \ftp\resourcs\biblio\books92.wp Books in the ANES Bibliography of Data Use \ftp\resourcs\biblio\papers.wp Various papers in the ANES Bibliography of Data Use \ftp\resourcs\biblio\phd92.wp Dissertations in the ANES Bibliography of Data Use \ftp\resourcs\psreport\pilotrpt.wp List of ANES Pilot Study Reports \ftp\resourcs\techrpts\techrpts.wp List of ANES Technical Reports \ftp\resourcs\conguide\readme.wp Correct order to print files for the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\title.wp Title page for the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\intro.wp Introduction for the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch1.wp Chapter one of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch2a.wp Chapter two, part A, of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch2b.wp Chapter two, part B, of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch3a.wp Chapter three, part A, of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch3b.wp Chapter three, part B, of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch4.wp Chapter four of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch5.wp Chapter five of the Continuity Guide \ftp\resourcs\conguide\92cgch6.wp Chapter six of the Continuity Guide OTHER ANES ANNOUNCEMENTS April 6, 1994 Receive Updates about ANES by E-Mail Please send us your e-mail address (send to: firstname.lastname@example.org) so we can keep you informed about future ANES activities including planning for the 1994 Election Study, the 1995 Pilot Study, Conferences to be held in 1994 and 1995, the release of new data sets including the ANES CD-ROM, and more. With over 2300 people on the ANES mailing list, the costs of mailing information to the user community has grown prohibitive. Email is more efficient, faster, less expensive, and environmentally friendly! You will usually receive updates on ANES activities approximately one week earlier by e-mail vs. U.S. mail. Data Release Announcements Cumulative File The ANES Project Staff has nearly completed its update of the Cumulative Data File (ICPSR #8475) to include variables and cases from the 1992 ANES Pre-/Post-Election Study. The Cumulative Data File will consist of 723 variables derived from the series of biennial SRC/CPS National Election Studies conducted since 1952. The addition of the 1992 data will bring to 21 the number of Election Studies that have been pooled into this single file which will contain a total of 37,456 cases. Variables that appear in this data set have been asked in three or more Election Studies. We will turn over the updated Cumulative Data File to the Inter- university Consortium for Political and Social Research in the very near future. After the Consortium has completed its verification and accessioning activities, it will announce the availability of the dataset through its regular channels. We will announce the availability of the data set on the ANES FTP server in the \ftp\announce subdirectory. Technically, the Cumulative Data File will be "raw" data with SAS and SPSS control cards. The basic mode of documentation is paper, although arrangements can be made with the Consortium to receive a WordPerfect 5.1/5.2 version of the documentation to facilitate printing additional copies of the documentation by users. One copy of the documentation will be sent with each request; additional copies will be approximately $20. Continuity Guide The Continuity Guide to the American National Election Studies is a topical index to all questions asked in ANES surveys. It is designed to assist users to determine whether and when a topic has been addressed in a National Election Studies data collection. Every question in the ANES surveys is referenced, although variations across time in question wording or in coding schemes are not described. For those variables included in the NES Cumulative Data File, users can find a full description of any changes in question wording that have occurred. The Guide describes the ANES biennial time-series studies, now updated through 1992, omitting only the first election survey in 1948 and a short survey in 1954. Also included in the Guide are supplementary ANES data collections carried out 1980-1991: the 1980 Major Panel, the 1984 Continuous Monitoring, the 1988 Study of Presidential Nominations; the 1988 and 1990 Senate Election Studies; and the 1990-1991 Political Consequences of War Panel. Appendices include brief descriptions of the Voter Validation Studies, contextual data collections, the ANES Pilot Studies of 1979, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989 and 1991, and various "nonresponse" datasets. The Guide is now available on the ANES FTP server. It is only available as a WordPerfect document, and there are no hardcopies. When we have added information about the 1992 Senate Election Study and the 1993 Pilot Study to the document, it will be available in ASCII format, and in hardcopy. The hardcopy version will cost approximately $20. Non-Response Datasets Three separate files, which we describe as "non-response" datasets will become available through the Consortium some time in April. The basis of each of these files is the total sample on which interviews were attempted. Thus, there are records for all addresses in the sample, regardless of whether an interview was conducted or not. The variables included in the data set are the reasons for non- interview, the number of calls, the characteristics of the non- interviewed household (insofar as this could be ascertained) and information about the age, education, work experience and race of the interviewers. With special permission from the Board of Overseers these non-response files can be linked to demographic information from the U.S. Census about the sample census tracts. Because such information is often used to calculate the difference between the interviewed individuals in the sample on some characteristics and the non-interview cases in the sample on the same characteristics, these files are sometimes referred to as the "bias" files. The three datasets include the 1992 Non-Response file, with an N of 3690; a special file for the 1990-1991-1992 Full Panel file, where the base N of 2785 includes the total sample file for the beginning of the panel in 1990; and a replacement for the 1990 non-response file which was initially released as part 22 of ICPSR #9548, the 1990 National Election Study The 1990 file includes "call records" and is an OSIRIS IV hierarchical file. The 1992 and the 1990-1991-1992 Full Panel Non-Response Files are available as raw data files with SAS and SPSS control cards. Documentation is paper only. ANES CD-ROM The ANES Project Staff, in collaboration with the ICPSR, are in the process of producing a CD-ROM that will contain all the data and codebooks for all of the Time-Series Election Studies conducted between 1948 and 1992 as well as the data and codebook for the ANES Cumulative Data File. Additional data collections (such as the 1956-58-60 Panel Study; the 1972-74-76 Panel Study; the 1988-90-92 Senate Election Study; the 1988 Super-Tuesday Study; and the 1984 Continuous Monitoring Study) may also be included on this CD-ROM. We anticipate release of the CD in early in 1995. Stay tuned for details. Errata Data sets affected: 1990-91 Panel/Pilot ("The Political Consequences of War") [ICPSR #9673] 1992 ANES Enhanced with the 1990-91 Panel data [ICPSR 6067] 1990-91-92 ANES Full Panel [ICPSR 6230] Error: The codebook entries for these files incorrectly list v2217 as the feeling thermometer for R's Congressperson, v2218 as the thermometer for R's Senator #1 and v2219 as the thermometer for R's Senator #2. The data are correct, but the correct descriptions are as follows: v2217 - Feeling thermometer (from the 1991 Pilot) for R's Senator #1 Note: Pennsylvania cases, the name asked was Harris Wofford v2218 - Feeling thermometer (from the 1991 Pilot) for R's Senator #2 v2219 - Feeling thermometer (from the 1991 Pilot) for R's Congressperson Also, the probes associated with these feeling thermometer variables should be: v2262 - Probe for v2217 R's Senator #1 v2263 - Probe for v2218 R's Senator #2 v2264 - Probe for v2219 R's Congressperson Note that even though the variable descriptions in the codebooks are incorrect, the 24-character variable names for these variables are correct. Also note that the variable descriptor lists at the front of the ICPSR release codebooks describe these variables incorrectly. The correct location to find the list of names of Senators and Representatives for use with the variables above is not Appendix A, as listed in the variable descriptions, but is instead Appendix B in the 1990-91 Panel/Pilot data set [ICPSR #9673] and is Note 16 in the 1992 ANES Enhanced data set [ICPSR #6067]. Finally, the descriptions of three other variables, v2317 - Approval/disapproval of the way R's representative has been handling the job, v2321 - Approval/disapproval of the way R's Senator #1 has been handling the job, and v2325 - Approval/disapproval of the way R's senator #2 has been handling the job should also refer to either Appendix B [ICPSR #9673] or Note 16 [ICPSR #6067].