The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2012
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED :      'Will Win by Quite a Bit'


  % OF GROUP: '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Males 22 ** 28 ** 16 ** 49 ** 21 ** 63 ** 16 ** 15 ** 54 ** 28 ** 16 ** 53 ** 12 ** 20 21 18
Females 18 ** 23 ** 8 ** 38 ** 19 ** 50 ** 12 ** 14 ** 40 ** 23 ** 19 ** 41 ** 15 ** 16 20 19
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Whites non-Hispanic 20 ** 26 ** 11 ** 43 ** 21 ** 58 ** 12 ** 13 ** 50 ** 25 ** 15 ** 47 ** 11 ** 16 17 15
Black non-Hispanic 21 ** 19 ** 20 ** 36 ** 12 ** 34 ** 23 ** 20 ** 30 ** 28 ** 28 ** 42 ** 22 ** 20 31 31
Hispanic ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 19 ** 52 ** 19 ** 24 ** 29 ** 25 ** 26 ** 46 ** 26 ** 21 27 24
Race oth/mult non-Hisp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 0 ** 53 ** 13 ** 6 ** 44 ** 16 ** 17 ** 34 ** 15 ** 31 28 21
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Grade Sch./Some High Sch. 19 ** 25 ** 15 ** 39 ** 19 ** 43 ** 20 ** 16 ** 35 ** 21 ** 23 ** 49 ** 20 ** 40 37 33
High School Diploma 22 ** 25 ** 10 ** 43 ** 19 ** 55 ** 15 ** 14 ** 43 ** 25 ** 19 ** 45 ** 18 ** 19 26 22
Some College, no Degree 17 ** 25 ** 11 ** 43 ** 21 ** 64 ** 10 ** 16 ** 51 ** 26 ** 17 ** 41 ** 13 ** 15 18 17
College Degree/ Post-grad 17 ** 25 ** 9 ** 51 ** 25 ** 69 ** 7 ** 9 ** 57 ** 25 ** 13 ** 54 ** 5 ** 16 13 13
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Income 0-16 Percentile 20 ** 22 ** 15 ** 36 ** 18 ** 44 ** 18 ** 15 ** 34 ** 26 ** 25 ** 41 ** 26 ** 22 32 30
Income 17-33 Percentile 21 ** 26 ** 9 ** 40 ** 21 ** 49 ** 15 ** 11 ** 37 ** 21 ** 17 ** 45 ** 18 ** 18 26 20
Income 34-67 Percentile 19 ** 27 ** 13 ** 46 ** 20 ** 56 ** 15 ** 14 ** 48 ** 23 ** 16 ** 45 ** 8 ** 19 20 17
Income 68-95 Percentile 20 ** 25 ** 10 ** 46 ** 19 ** 66 ** 10 ** 12 ** 54 ** 30 ** 15 ** 50 ** 13 ** 15 13 14
Income 96-100 Percentile 18 ** 22 ** 9 ** 51 ** 28 ** 77 ** 9 ** 23 ** 67 ** 26 ** 14 ** 57 ** 8 ** 15 6 13
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Professionals 19 ** 25 ** 14 ** 48 ** 27 ** 69 ** 10 ** 11 ** 55 ** 26 ** 13 ** 52 ** 9 ** 14 ** **
White Collar 17 ** 30 ** 12 ** 38 ** 16 ** 60 ** 12 ** 14 ** 49 ** 24 ** 19 ** 47 ** 13 ** 18 ** **
Blue Collar 19 ** 29 ** 11 ** 48 ** 18 ** 52 ** 19 ** 16 ** 42 ** 27 ** 19 ** 44 ** 16 ** 21 ** **
Unskilled 23 ** 22 ** 23 ** 44 ** 19 ** 52 ** 16 ** 17 ** 42 ** 22 ** 23 ** 42 ** 19 ** 23 ** **
Farmers 21 ** 20 ** 19 ** 40 ** 23 ** 54 ** 13 ** 19 ** 49 ** 36 ** 21 ** 55 ** 28 ** 16 ** **
Housewives 20 ** 22 ** 9 ** 36 ** 20 ** 50 ** 11 ** 13 ** 41 ** 21 ** 16 ** 39 ** 17 ** 18 ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Union Households 22 ** 27 ** 12 ** 51 ** 18 ** 52 ** 15 ** 14 ** 48 ** 25 ** 16 ** 52 ** 10 ** 14 19 19
Non-Union Households 19 ** 24 ** 12 ** 40 ** 20 ** 57 ** 13 ** 14 ** 46 ** 25 ** 18 ** 45 ** 14 ** 19 20 18
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
South 19 ** 25 ** 10 ** 36 ** 17 ** 57 ** 14 ** 17 ** 43 ** 29 ** 20 ** 42 ** 16 ** 21 20 20
Nonsouth 20 ** 25 ** 12 ** 45 ** 21 ** 55 ** 14 ** 13 ** 47 ** 24 ** 16 ** 48 ** 13 ** 16 21 18
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Born 1991 or later ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 23
Born 1975-1990 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 0 ** 33 ** 23 ** 17 21 22
Born 1959-1974 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 15 ** 44 ** 30 ** 18 ** 46 ** 15 ** 18 21 18
Born 1943-1958 ** ** ** ** ** ** 56 ** 18 ** 54 ** 12 ** 14 ** 51 ** 26 ** 19 ** 49 ** 11 ** 19 20 16
Born 1927-1942 20 ** 31 ** 13 ** 42 ** 17 ** 62 ** 15 ** 13 ** 51 ** 24 ** 18 ** 45 ** 7 ** 18 19 14
Born 1911-1926 21 ** 23 ** 11 ** 45 ** 22 ** 58 ** 14 ** 14 ** 38 ** 20 ** 13 ** 48 ** 19 ** 13 10 17
Born 1895-1910 18 ** 25 ** 10 ** 46 ** 23 ** 48 ** 15 ** 13 ** 39 ** 18 ** 18 ** 39 ** 16 ** ** ** **
Born before 1895 21 ** 24 ** 13 ** 28 ** 19 ** 48 ** 16 ** 17 ** 25 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Democrats (incl leaners) 20 ** 22 ** 12 ** 47 ** 18 ** 52 ** 16 ** 13 ** 36 ** 20 ** 21 ** 52 ** 15 ** 16 24 20
Independents 22 ** 26 ** 10 ** 39 ** 22 ** 47 ** 13 ** 17 ** 43 ** 22 ** 20 ** 39 ** 18 ** 13 24 18
Republicans (incl leaners) 20 ** 31 ** 12 ** 36 ** 24 ** 65 ** 11 ** 14 ** 60 ** 32 ** 12 ** 39 ** 10 ** 22 14 16
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Liberals ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 56 ** 14 ** 13 ** 43 ** 19 ** 19 ** 53 ** 10 ** 17 21 17
Moderates ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 59 ** 15 ** 14 ** 43 ** 25 ** 18 ** 47 ** 12 ** 13 21 17
Conservatives ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 66 ** 11 ** 14 ** 62 ** 30 ** 13 ** 45 ** 12 ** 21 14 18

    ___   (underline) indicates 50 or fewer total respondents within group
    **     indicates question not asked or no cases within group
          2008 NOTE: open-ended coding of occupation is not yet complete.
....................

Table 6D.9.1
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table
NOTE: variable used for race grouping has changed. See Table 1A.3

(Table generated: 26OCT15)