The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2004
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED :      'Close Race'


  % OF GROUP: '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Males 64 ** 58 ** 65 ** 39 ** 64 ** 29 ** 75 ** 73 ** 42 ** 69 ** 81 ** 46 ** 87 ** 79
Females 59 ** 56 ** 62 ** 44 ** 56 ** 34 ** 66 ** 69 ** 52 ** 70 ** 78 ** 58 ** 82 ** 83
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Whites 63 ** 57 ** 65 ** 42 ** 59 ** 30 ** 72 ** 72 ** 45 ** 70 ** 82 ** 51 ** 87 ** 83
Blacks 40 ** 52 ** 46 ** 40 ** 65 ** 47 ** 54 ** 62 ** 56 ** 67 ** 66 ** 54 ** 77 ** 79
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Grade School 51 ** 48 ** 53 ** 38 ** 48 ** 33 ** 55 ** 54 ** 49 ** 64 ** 68 ** 44 ** 75 ** 58
High School 66 ** 59 ** 68 ** 44 ** 61 ** 32 ** 69 ** 69 ** 51 ** 69 ** 78 ** 54 ** 80 ** 79
Some College, no Degree 73 ** 69 ** 71 ** 45 ** 70 ** 31 ** 77 ** 74 ** 45 ** 71 ** 80 ** 59 ** 86 ** 84
College Degree/ Post-grad 77 ** 63 ** 70 ** 35 ** 62 ** 27 ** 79 ** 83 ** 39 ** 73 ** 84 ** 45 ** 94 ** 84
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Income 0-16 Percentile 48 ** 51 ** 54 ** 39 ** 48 ** 32 ** 54 ** 57 ** 58 ** 62 ** 71 ** 57 ** 71 ** 76
Income 17-33 Percentile 55 ** 50 ** 56 ** 45 ** 52 ** 39 ** 67 ** 70 ** 56 ** 73 ** 80 ** 55 ** 80 ** 82
Income 34-67 Percentile 65 ** 60 ** 65 ** 42 ** 62 ** 33 ** 74 ** 73 ** 48 ** 74 ** 82 ** 54 ** 90 ** 81
Income 68-95 Percentile 69 ** 62 ** 70 ** 41 ** 70 ** 28 ** 77 ** 81 ** 42 ** 68 ** 83 ** 49 ** 86 ** 83
Income 96-100 Percentile 66 ** 68 ** 74 ** 43 ** 60 ** 17 ** 81 ** 68 ** 30 ** 70 ** 83 ** 43 ** 92 ** 82
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Professionals 71 ** 60 ** 69 ** 41 ** 62 ** 25 ** 75 ** 77 ** 42 ** 71 ** 85 ** 47 ** 90 ** 85
White Collar 71 ** 57 ** 71 ** 51 ** 68 ** 31 ** 75 ** 71 ** 46 ** 72 ** 79 ** 53 ** 85 ** 82
Blue Collar 65 ** 53 ** 64 ** 35 ** 59 ** 35 ** 65 ** 68 ** 52 ** 68 ** 77 ** 54 ** 82 ** 78
Unskilled 49 ** 57 ** 60 ** 44 ** 58 ** 34 ** 72 ** 60 ** 48 ** 70 ** 75 ** 55 ** 77 ** 77
Farmers 53 ** 60 ** 62 ** 41 ** 47 ** 29 ** 67 ** 56 ** 42 ** 57 ** 76 ** 43 ** 72 ** 79
Housewives 57 ** 57 ** 58 ** 46 ** 55 ** 32 ** 64 ** 65 ** 49 ** 71 ** 79 ** 59 ** 81 ** 78
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Union Households 62 ** 57 ** 62 ** 37 ** 61 ** 36 ** 71 ** 72 ** 47 ** 70 ** 82 ** 48 ** 88 ** 86
Non-Union Households 61 ** 57 ** 64 ** 43 ** 59 ** 30 ** 69 ** 70 ** 48 ** 70 ** 78 ** 54 ** 84 ** 79
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
South 55 ** 53 ** 60 ** 45 ** 62 ** 29 ** 68 ** 67 ** 48 ** 65 ** 75 ** 55 ** 83 ** 76
Nonsouth 63 ** 58 ** 65 ** 41 ** 59 ** 32 ** 70 ** 72 ** 47 ** 72 ** 81 ** 51 ** 85 ** 83
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Born 1975 or later ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 92 ** 68 ** 77 ** 82
Born 1959-1974 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 72 ** 51 ** 65 ** 79 ** 53 ** 83 ** 80
Born 1943-1958 ** ** ** ** ** ** 36 ** 64 ** 37 ** 75 ** 73 ** 45 ** 71 ** 79 ** 50 ** 88 ** 80
Born 1927-1942 71 ** 54 ** 65 ** 46 ** 67 ** 29 ** 72 ** 75 ** 45 ** 71 ** 78 ** 52 ** 91 ** 80
Born 1911-1926 62 ** 58 ** 67 ** 41 ** 60 ** 29 ** 66 ** 69 ** 52 ** 73 ** 81 ** 51 ** 77 ** 86
Born 1895-1910 63 ** 60 ** 64 ** 37 ** 50 ** 34 ** 59 ** 57 ** 49 ** 65 ** 70 ** 55 ** 84 ** **
Born before 1895 53 ** 52 ** 54 ** 41 ** 40 ** 21 ** 53 ** 42 ** 50 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Democrats (incl leaners) 62 ** 61 ** 64 ** 41 ** 61 ** 35 ** 70 ** 72 ** 58 ** 76 ** 77 ** 47 ** 83 ** 84
Independents & Apoliticals 40 ** 40 ** 48 ** 35 ** 48 ** 29 ** 61 ** 57 ** 43 ** 61 ** 73 ** 57 ** 75 ** 82
Republicans (incl leaners) 65 ** 58 ** 70 ** 47 ** 62 ** 27 ** 73 ** 74 ** 36 ** 65 ** 85 ** 60 ** 90 ** 77
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Liberals ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 39 ** 77 ** 77 ** 53 ** 79 ** 79 ** 47 ** 90 ** 88
Moderates ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 34 ** 72 ** 74 ** 53 ** 72 ** 80 ** 52 ** 88 ** 82
Conservatives ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 28 ** 73 ** 74 ** 35 ** 66 ** 84 ** 55 ** 87 ** 78

    ___   (underline) indicates 50 or fewer total respondents within group
    **     indicates question not asked or no cases within group


Table 6D.9.2
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table
NOTE: variable used for race grouping has changed. See Table 1A.3

(Table generated: 09DEC05)