The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2012
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED :      'Don't Know, Depends'


  % OF GROUP: '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Males 15 ** 14 ** 19 ** 13 ** 14 ** 9 ** 9 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 3 ** 1 ** 0 ** 1 1 0
Females 23 ** 21 ** 29 ** 18 ** 25 ** 15 ** 22 ** 18 ** 8 ** 7 ** 4 ** 1 ** 3 ** 2 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Whites non-Hispanic 17 ** 17 ** 24 ** 15 ** 20 ** 12 ** 16 ** 15 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1 1 0
Black non-Hispanic 39 ** 28 ** 35 ** 24 ** 22 ** 19 ** 23 ** 18 ** 13 ** 6 ** 6 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 2 0
Hispanic ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 19 ** 19 ** 16 ** 19 ** 10 ** 7 ** 3 ** 2 ** 2 ** 3 3 0
Race oth/mult non-Hisp ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 25 ** 21 ** 24 ** 19 ** 2 ** 5 ** 5 ** 0 ** 1 ** 4 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Grade Sch./Some High Sch. 30 ** 27 ** 32 ** 23 ** 33 ** 24 ** 25 ** 29 ** 16 ** 14 ** 9 ** 7 ** 5 ** 2 6 0
High School Diploma 12 ** 16 ** 22 ** 13 ** 20 ** 13 ** 16 ** 17 ** 6 ** 6 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2 2 0
Some College, no Degree 10 ** 6 ** 17 ** 12 ** 9 ** 5 ** 12 ** 10 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1 1 0
College Degree/ Post-grad 6 ** 13 ** 21 ** 14 ** 12 ** 3 ** 14 ** 8 ** 3 ** 2 ** 3 ** 1 ** 1 ** 0 0 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Income 0-16 Percentile 31 ** 26 ** 31 ** 25 ** 34 ** 24 ** 28 ** 28 ** 8 ** 12 ** 5 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2 1 0
Income 17-33 Percentile 24 ** 24 ** 35 ** 15 ** 26 ** 12 ** 18 ** 19 ** 7 ** 6 ** 3 ** 0 ** 2 ** 0 1 0
Income 34-67 Percentile 16 ** 13 ** 21 ** 12 ** 18 ** 11 ** 12 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2 ** 0 1 0
Income 68-95 Percentile 11 ** 13 ** 19 ** 13 ** 11 ** 6 ** 13 ** 7 ** 3 ** 2 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 2 1 0
Income 96-100 Percentile 15 ** 10 ** 17 ** 6 ** 12 ** 5 ** 10 ** 8 ** 3 ** 4 ** 3 ** 0 ** 0 ** 3 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Professionals 9 ** 15 ** 17 ** 11 ** 11 ** 6 ** 14 ** 12 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1 ** **
White Collar 13 ** 13 ** 17 ** 11 ** 16 ** 9 ** 12 ** 15 ** 6 ** 5 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1 ** **
Blue Collar 17 ** 18 ** 25 ** 17 ** 23 ** 13 ** 16 ** 16 ** 6 ** 5 ** 4 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1 ** **
Unskilled 28 ** 21 ** 17 ** 12 ** 23 ** 14 ** 12 ** 23 ** 10 ** 7 ** 2 ** 4 ** 4 ** 0 ** **
Farmers 26 ** 20 ** 18 ** 19 ** 30 ** 17 ** 20 ** 25 ** 9 ** 7 ** 3 ** 1 ** 0 ** 5 ** **
Housewives 23 ** 21 ** 33 ** 18 ** 26 ** 18 ** 25 ** 22 ** 10 ** 8 ** 5 ** 2 ** 3 ** 4 ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Union Households 16 ** 16 ** 26 ** 11 ** 20 ** 12 ** 14 ** 14 ** 5 ** 5 ** 2 ** 0 ** 2 ** 0 1 0
Non-Union Households 20 ** 19 ** 24 ** 17 ** 20 ** 13 ** 17 ** 16 ** 7 ** 5 ** 4 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
South 26 ** 22 ** 29 ** 19 ** 21 ** 13 ** 19 ** 16 ** 9 ** 6 ** 5 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2 1 0
Nonsouth 17 ** 17 ** 23 ** 14 ** 20 ** 12 ** 16 ** 15 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Born 1991 or later ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 0
Born 1975-1990 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 8 ** 0 ** 0 ** 1 1 0
Born 1959-1974 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 13 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2 1 0
Born 1943-1958 ** ** ** ** ** ** 8 ** 17 ** 9 ** 12 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1 1 0
Born 1927-1942 10 ** 15 ** 22 ** 13 ** 16 ** 9 ** 14 ** 12 ** 4 ** 4 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2 ** 2 1 0
Born 1911-1926 17 ** 19 ** 22 ** 14 ** 18 ** 13 ** 19 ** 17 ** 10 ** 7 ** 6 ** 1 ** 4 ** 1 7 0
Born 1895-1910 20 ** 15 ** 26 ** 17 ** 26 ** 19 ** 26 ** 30 ** 13 ** 17 ** 11 ** 7 ** 0 ** ** ** **
Born before 1895 26 ** 24 ** 33 ** 31 ** 42 ** 30 ** 32 ** 42 ** 25 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Democrats (incl leaners) 18 ** 18 ** 24 ** 12 ** 22 ** 12 ** 14 ** 15 ** 6 ** 4 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 0 1 0
Independents 27 ** 29 ** 36 ** 23 ** 27 ** 24 ** 26 ** 27 ** 14 ** 16 ** 7 ** 4 ** 4 ** 6 3 0
Republicans (incl leaners) 15 ** 11 ** 18 ** 17 ** 14 ** 8 ** 15 ** 12 ** 3 ** 4 ** 3 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1 1 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '08 '12
Liberals ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 5 ** 9 ** 9 ** 4 ** 2 ** 2 ** 0 ** 0 ** 0 0 0
Moderates ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 7 ** 13 ** 12 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1 1 0
Conservatives ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 6 ** 16 ** 12 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 0 ** 1 0 0

    ___   (underline) indicates 50 or fewer total respondents within group
    **     indicates question not asked or no cases within group
          2008 NOTE: open-ended coding of occupation is not yet complete.
....................

Table 6D.9.3
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table
NOTE: variable used for race grouping has changed. See Table 1A.3

(Table generated: 26OCT15)