The ANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral Behavior

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Expected Closeness of Presidential Race 1952-2004
PERCENT AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS WHO RESPONDED :      'Don't Know, Depends'


  % OF GROUP: '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Males 15 ** 14 ** 19 ** 13 ** 14 ** 9 ** 9 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 3 ** 1 ** 0 ** 1
Females 23 ** 21 ** 29 ** 18 ** 25 ** 15 ** 22 ** 18 ** 8 ** 7 ** 4 ** 1 ** 3 ** 2
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Whites 17 ** 17 ** 24 ** 15 ** 20 ** 12 ** 16 ** 15 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1
Blacks 39 ** 28 ** 35 ** 24 ** 22 ** 19 ** 23 ** 17 ** 13 ** 6 ** 6 ** 2 ** 2 ** 1
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Grade School 30 ** 27 ** 32 ** 23 ** 33 ** 24 ** 25 ** 29 ** 16 ** 14 ** 9 ** 7 ** 5 ** 2
High School 12 ** 16 ** 22 ** 13 ** 20 ** 13 ** 16 ** 17 ** 6 ** 6 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2
Some College, no Degree 10 ** 6 ** 17 ** 12 ** 9 ** 5 ** 12 ** 10 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1
College Degree/ Post-grad 6 ** 13 ** 21 ** 14 ** 12 ** 3 ** 14 ** 8 ** 3 ** 2 ** 3 ** 1 ** 1 ** 0
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Income 0-16 Percentile 31 ** 26 ** 31 ** 25 ** 34 ** 24 ** 28 ** 28 ** 8 ** 12 ** 5 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2
Income 17-33 Percentile 24 ** 24 ** 35 ** 15 ** 26 ** 12 ** 18 ** 19 ** 7 ** 6 ** 3 ** 0 ** 2 ** 0
Income 34-67 Percentile 16 ** 13 ** 21 ** 12 ** 18 ** 11 ** 12 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2 ** 0
Income 68-95 Percentile 11 ** 13 ** 19 ** 13 ** 11 ** 6 ** 13 ** 7 ** 3 ** 2 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 2
Income 96-100 Percentile 15 ** 10 ** 17 ** 6 ** 12 ** 5 ** 10 ** 8 ** 3 ** 4 ** 3 ** 0 ** 0 ** 3
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Professionals 9 ** 15 ** 17 ** 11 ** 11 ** 6 ** 14 ** 12 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1
White Collar 13 ** 13 ** 17 ** 11 ** 16 ** 9 ** 12 ** 15 ** 6 ** 5 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1
Blue Collar 17 ** 18 ** 25 ** 17 ** 23 ** 13 ** 16 ** 16 ** 6 ** 5 ** 4 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1
Unskilled 28 ** 21 ** 17 ** 12 ** 23 ** 14 ** 12 ** 23 ** 10 ** 7 ** 2 ** 4 ** 4 ** 0
Farmers 26 ** 20 ** 18 ** 19 ** 30 ** 17 ** 20 ** 25 ** 9 ** 7 ** 3 ** 1 ** 0 ** 5
Housewives 23 ** 21 ** 33 ** 18 ** 26 ** 18 ** 25 ** 22 ** 10 ** 8 ** 5 ** 2 ** 3 ** 4
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Union Households 16 ** 16 ** 26 ** 11 ** 20 ** 12 ** 14 ** 14 ** 5 ** 5 ** 2 ** 0 ** 2 ** 0
Non-Union Households 20 ** 19 ** 24 ** 17 ** 20 ** 13 ** 17 ** 16 ** 7 ** 5 ** 4 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
South 26 ** 22 ** 29 ** 19 ** 21 ** 13 ** 19 ** 16 ** 9 ** 6 ** 5 ** 2 ** 1 ** 2
Nonsouth 17 ** 17 ** 23 ** 14 ** 20 ** 12 ** 16 ** 15 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 1
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Born 1975 or later ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 8 ** 0 ** 0 ** 1
Born 1959-1974 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 13 ** 5 ** 5 ** 3 ** 1 ** 2 ** 2
Born 1943-1958 ** ** ** ** ** ** 8 ** 17 ** 9 ** 12 ** 13 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1
Born 1927-1942 10 ** 15 ** 22 ** 13 ** 16 ** 9 ** 14 ** 12 ** 4 ** 4 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2 ** 2
Born 1911-1926 17 ** 19 ** 22 ** 14 ** 18 ** 13 ** 19 ** 17 ** 10 ** 7 ** 6 ** 1 ** 4 ** 1
Born 1895-1910 20 ** 15 ** 26 ** 17 ** 26 ** 19 ** 26 ** 30 ** 13 ** 17 ** 11 ** 7 ** 0 ** **
Born before 1895 26 ** 24 ** 33 ** 31 ** 42 ** 30 ** 32 ** 42 ** 25 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Democrats (incl leaners) 18 ** 18 ** 24 ** 12 ** 22 ** 12 ** 14 ** 15 ** 6 ** 4 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 0
Independents & Apoliticals 42 ** 38 ** 41 ** 28 ** 31 ** 24 ** 27 ** 27 ** 14 ** 16 ** 7 ** 5 ** 5 ** 6
Republicans (incl leaners) 15 ** 11 ** 18 ** 17 ** 14 ** 8 ** 16 ** 12 ** 3 ** 4 ** 3 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1
  '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Liberals ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 5 ** 9 ** 9 ** 4 ** 2 ** 2 ** 0 ** 0 ** 0
Moderates ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 7 ** 13 ** 12 ** 4 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 1 ** 1
Conservatives ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 6 ** 16 ** 12 ** 3 ** 3 ** 2 ** 1 ** 0 ** 1

    ___   (underline) indicates 50 or fewer total respondents within group
    **     indicates question not asked or no cases within group


Table 6D.9.3
Source: The American National Election Studies
Link to the ASCII text version of this table
NOTE: variable used for race grouping has changed. See Table 1A.3

(Table generated: 09DEC05)