THE ANES GUIDE TO PUBLIC OPINION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR
______________________________________________________



Expected Closeness of Presidential Race  1952-2004


                           '52  '54  '56  '58  '60  '62  '64  '66  '68  '70  '72  '74  '76  '78  '80  '82  '84  '86  '88  '90  '92  '94  '96  '98  '00  '02  '04 
 
  Will Win by Quite a Bit   20   **   25   **   12   **   43   **   20   **   56   **   14   **   14   **   46   **   25   **   17   **   46   **   14   **   18 
               Close Race   61   **   57   **   64   **   42   **   60   **   32   **   69   **   70   **   48   **   70   **   79   **   53   **   85   **   81 
      Don't Know, Depends   19   **   18   **   25   **   16   **   20   **   13   **   17   **   16   **    6   **    5   **    3   **    1   **    2   **    1
                          ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ 

                       N  1755      1629      1870      1470      1497      2697      2857      1565      2252      2030      2482      1710      1807      1157  



PERCENTAGE WITHIN STUDY YEAR
Table 6D.9
Source:  The American National Election Studies



     QUESTION TEXT:

     (IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you think it
     will be a close race or will {R's predicted winning candidate} win
     by quite a bit?" 1980-later: (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN
     PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) "Do you thing the presidential race will be
     close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?"
       


     This question is variable VCF0714 in the ANES Cumulative Data File dataset.
     Consult the Cumulative Data File codebook for complete question text and annotation.
     Weight variable VCF0009A was used to produce this table (see weight documentation).

     Table generated:  27NOV05