- APPENDIX A -
contextual data
1. Historical election returns at the state, county and
congressional district levels, 1972, 1974, and 1976.
[V1001-1100]
VARIABLES: For each level/office:
votes democratic candidate
votes republican candidate
votes all other candidates
votes all candidates
==
Levels/offices are:
State - President (1972,1976)
State - Senator (1972,1974,1976)
State - Governor (1972,1974,1976)
District - President (1976)
District - Senator (1976)
District - Governor (1976)
District - Representative
(1972,1974,1976)
County - President (1972,1976)
County - Senator (1972,1974,1976)
County - Governor (1972,1974,1976)
County - Representative
(1972,1974,1976)
SOURCE: ICPSR U.S. HISTORICAL ELECTION
RETURNS, 1788-1978 (ICPSR STUDY NO.001),
EXCEPT FOR 1976 RETURNS AT THE CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT LEVEL FOR THE OFFICES OF PRESIDENT,
SENATOR AND GOVERNOR (PROVIDED BY
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC.).
2. 1978 election returns for primary and general elections
at the state, county, district and precinct levels.
[V1101-1142,1412-1474,2133-2141]
VARIABLES: Primaries:
votes democratic winner
votes democratic runner-up
votes all democratic candidates
votes republican winner
votes republican runner-up
votes all republican candidates
==
Primary offices are:
District - Representative
County - Senator
County - Governor
Precinct of IW - Representative
Precinct of IW - Senator
Precinct of IW - Governor
Precinct of Registration -
Representative
Precinct of Registration - Senator
Precinct of Registration - Governor
1978: 2. [con't]
=====================
Elections, by party:
votes democratic candidate
votes republican candidate
votes all other candidates
votes all candidates
==
Levels/offices for elections by party are:
State - Senator
State - Governor
District - Representative
County - Representative
County - Senator
County - Governor
Precinct of IW - Representative
Precinct of IW - Senator
Precinct of IW - Governor
Precinct of Registration -
Representative
Precinct of Registration - Senator
Precinct of Registration - Governor
===================
Elections, by incumbent/nonincumbent:
vote for incumbent
vote for non-incumbent
total vote
==
Levels/offices for elections by
incumbent/nonincumbent are:
State - Senator
State - Governor
District - Representative
SOURCE: ICPSR U.S. HISTORICAL ELECTION
RETURNS, 1788-1978 (ICPSR STUDY NO.001).
3. Vote Validation variables. [V1399-1411,1475-1485]
SEE: APPENDIX C.
4. Media Structure data. Information about presence of
televison(s) in households within R's county of
residence and within R's "ADI" or "area of dominant
influence." [V1486-1499].
SOURCES: ARBITRON TELEVISION'S "MARKET
REPORT 1977-1978" AND "TELEVISION HOUSEHOLDS
BOOK 1977-1978;" CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC.
(CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS IN THE 70S, 2ND
EDITION).
5. Incumbent Characteristics data. The following
information about the congressional incumbent is
provided. [V1143-1262].
General: Candidate list code, party,
year 1st elected to present
term, party seniority rank
Personal: Age, sex, race, marital
status, number of children,
religion
Education: Bachelor's, master's,
professional
Occupation: U.S. Census occupation code,
Duncan S.E.I. score, NORC
prestige score (vars for 2
occupations)
Experience: Number of offices maintained
in district, 4 most recent
governmental services or party
offices
1978: 5. [con't]
Committees: 4 mentions each:
Congressional committee
assignments, seniority rank
within party for each
committee, subcommittee
assignments (up to 4) within
each committee, leadership
role within subcommittee(s)
Ratings: 1977 and 1978 ratings from:
. Americans for Democratic
Action
. AFL-CIO Committee on Political
Education
. Public Citizen
. Ripon Society
. National Farmers Union
. League of Conservation
. Consumer Federation
. National Associated
Businessmen (95th Congress)
. National Security Index (95th
congress)
. Americans for Constitutional
Action
. National Taxpayers Union
SOURCES: 1978, 1979 U.S. CONGRESS
CONGRESSIONAL DIRECTORY; 1978, 1978-1979
WASHINGTON INFORMATION DIRECTORY,
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC; CONGRESSIONAL
STAFF DIRECTORY, CHARLES B. BRONSON; 1977,
1978 ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS, MICHAEL
BARONE ET AL.; "ELECTING CONGRESS 1978,"
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC.
6. Candidate Characteristics data. The following
information about the U.S. House democratic and
republican candidates is provided. [V1263-1398].
Personal: Age, sex, marital status,
how long married, number of
children, religion, military
service
Education: Bachelor's, master's,
professional
Occupation: U.S. Census Occupation Code,
Duncan S.E.I. score, NORC
prestige score (vars for 2
occupations)
Experience: 4 mentions each: Most recent
previous elective offices:
title of office, year started,
year ended; most recent
previous unsuccessful
campaign: title of office
sought, type of election, year
of campaign; most recent
previous non-elective
government office: title of
office, year started, year
ended; most recent other party
post.
SOURCE: 1978 CANDIDATE QUESTIONNAIRE
ADMINISTERED BY CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC.
AND SENT TO ALL CANDIDATES. IF NOT RETURNED
OR RETURNED INCOMPLETE, OTHER SOURCES USED TO
RETRIEVE BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION WERE:
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY CANDIDATE
QUESTIONNAIRES FROM PREVIOUS YEARS;
INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY THE CANDIDATE'S
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS; INFORMATION WHICH
APPEARED IN THE CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY
"WEEKLY REPORT;" CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY'S
SPECIAL ELECTION ISSUE OF THE "WEEKLY REPORT"
(OCT. 14, 1978); THE INCUMBENCY
CHARACTERISTICS DATA, IF CANDIDATE AN
INCUMBENT (SEE 5 ABOVE).
7. Campaign finance data. Information on 1976 and 1978
campaign expenditures and contributions, U.S. House and
Senate. (V1500-1541).
Each year for Democratic, republican, minor
party candidates:
- was candidate incumbent or challenger
- was candidate winner or loser
- total campaign money received
- total campaign disbursements
SOURCES: 1976: 1976 SENATORIAL CAMPAIGNS
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES, NO. 6 (APRIL, 1977) AND
1976 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES CAMPAIGNS RECEIPTS
AND EXPENDITURES, NO. 9 (SEPTEMBER, 1977), OF THE
FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSION DISCLOSURE SERIES.
1978: REPORTS ON FINANCIAL ACTIVITY 1977-1978
AND INTERIM REPORT NO.5, "U.S. SENATE AND HOUSE
CAMPAIGNS" (JUNE, 1979), OF THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS
COMMISSION.
1. U.S Census Bureau Congressional District Data Book
(93rd Congress) data. 4 datasets containing
economic, social, and demographic information for the
108 congressional districts represented in the 1978
election study, plus ICPSR electoral returns at
congressional district level for president, U.S.
senator and U.S. representative 1966-1970. 2304
records sorted by 1978 case ID. [class II].
2. U.S. Census Bureau County and City Data Book, 1972
data. Contains all available census data about the
123 counties represented in the 1978 election study.
One record for each of the 2304 survey respondents.
[class II].
3. Supplementary file of campaign materials. A dataset
containing a summary of the campaign materials
collected from campaign offices of major party
candidates in congressional races held in the districts
sampled. Utilizes a "thematic" coding scheme,
focussing on the relative emphasis placed by the
campaign on a number of different topics. The file has
been expanded so that there is one record for each of
the 2304 respondents. The user can perform a
case-by-case merge with the survey dataset. [class
II].
Contextual data are appended to each respondent's record in
the 1980 pre-post data file and in the 1980 major panel data
file. Complete documentation of variables appears in
Appendix A of the 1980 codebook. Included are:
1. Historical election returns at the state, congressional
district, and county levels for president, governor,
U.S. senator and U.S. representative, 1972-1978.
[V5001-5124].
VARIABLES: For each level/office:
votes democratic candidate
votes republican candidate
votes all other candidates
votes all candidates
==
Levels/offices are:
State - President (1972,1976)
State - Senator
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
State - Governor
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
District - President (1976)
District - Senator (1976)
District - Governor (1976)
District - Representative
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
County - President (1972,1976)
County - Senator
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
County - Governor
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
County - Representative
(1972,1974,1976,1978)
SOURCE: ICPSR U.S. HISTORICAL ELECTION
RETURNS, 1788-1980 (ICPSR STUDY NO.001),
EXCEPT FOR 1976 RETURNS AT THE CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT LEVEL FOR THE OFFICES OF PRESIDENT,
SENATOR AND GOVERNOR (PROVIDED BY
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC.).
2. 1980 primary election returns at the state level and
general election returns at the state, district and
county levels for president, U.S. Senator, and U.S.
Representative. [V5125-5188].
VARIABLES: Presidential primary vars are (all
state level):
votes carter
votes kennedy
votes other democratic candidates
votes all democratic candidates
votes anderson
votes bush
votes reagan
votes other republican candidates
votes all republican candidates
=====================
Nonpresidential primary vars are:
votes democratic winner
votes democratic runner-up
votes all democratic candidates
votes republican winner
votes republican runner-up
votes all republican candidates
1980: 2. [con't]
==
Nonpresidential primary
levels/offices are:
State - Senator
State - Representative
=====================
Election variables are:
votes democratic candidate
votes republican candidate
votes anderson
votes all other candidates
votes all candidates
==
Levels/offices for elections are:
State - President
State - Senator
State - Governor
District - President
District - Representative
County - President
County - Representative
County - Senator
County - Governor
SOURCES: ICPSR U.S. HISTORICAL ELECTION
RETURNS, 1788-1980 (ICPSR STUDY NO.001).
3. 1980 Federal Elections Commission financial data on
candidates for the House. [V5189-5204].
Variables for Democratic, republican, minor party
candidates are:
- outcome of election for candidate
- candidate net receipts
- candidate net expenditures
- party contributions to candidate (not
minor party cand.)
- Party expenditures on behalf of candidate
(not minor pty cand.)
- Incumbent, challenger or candidate in
open race
SOURCE: REPORTS OF THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS
COMMISSION.
4. Interest group ratings of incumbent congressmen.
[V5205-5225].
Variables are 1979 and 1980 ratings from:
. Americans for Democratic Action
. AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education
. Public Citizen
. League of Conservation Voters
. Consumer Federation of America
. National Security Index (1980 only)
. National Taxpayers Union
. Americans for Constitutional Action
. American Conservative Union
. U.S. Chamber of Commerce
. National Farmers Union
SOURCES: REPORTS OF THE NAMED ORGANIZATIONS,
EXCEPT FOR THE U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE,
WHOSE RATINGS WERE OBTAINED FROM
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY, INC.
Limited contextual data are appended to each respondent's
record. Included are county-level Census data on race, as
follow:
- 1980 county population
- % of county population white
- % of county population black
- % of county population native North American
- % of county population Asian/Pacific Islander
- % of county population Spanish/not Spanish
- % of county population not of Spanish origin
- % of county population Mexican
- % of county population Puerto Rican
- % of county population Cuban
- % of county population other Spanish
- % of county population 'other' race
- % of Spanish origin white
- % of Spanish origin black
- % of Spanish origin American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut,
Asian and Pacific Islander
- % of Spanish origin 'other' race
- % of county population age 5-17 speaking only English
at home
- % of county population age 5-17 speaking Spanish at
home, English very well
- % of county population age 5-17 speaking Spanish at
home, English not very well
- % of county population age 5-17 speaking other at
home, English very well
- % of county population age 5-17 speaking other at
home, English not very well
- % of county population over 18 speaking only English
at home
- % of county population over 18 speaking Spanish at
home, English very well
- % of county population over 18 speaking Spanish at
home, English not wvery ell
- % of county population over 18 speaking other at
home, English very well
- % of county population over 18 speaking other at
home, English not very well
- total county population age 5 and over
Contextual data are appended to each respondent's record in
the 1988-1990-1992 Pooled Senate data file. Included are:
1. General elections and primary elections data on U.S.
Senate races.
[V893-914].
General election variables are:
- democratic votes
- republican votes
- other votes
- democratic % of 2-party vote
==============================
Primary variables (democratic and republican,
each) are:
- date of primary
- % of vote (candidate who later appeared in
general election)
- % margin over closest competitor
- % of vote in runoff (dem: Florida only;
rep: Texas only)
- % margin over closest competitor in runoff
SOURCES: GENERAL ELECTIONS: REPORTS OF THE
FEDERAL ELECTION
COMMISSION. PRIMARY ELECTIONS: UNPUBLISHED
BRIEFING BOOK ON
SENATE ELECTIONS PREPARED BY CBS.
2. Background information about Seat #1, Seat #2 senators.
[V915-1387].
Personal: Age, party, education, 2 most recent
occupations and employers, religion,
marital status, no. of children,
military (branch, year entered, year
discharged, rank at discharge)
Political: Did senator ever serve in house and
when, has senator run for
president and when, route to
senate and (if by special election)
year of special election (incl. %
of 2-pty vote in special election),
year of most recent general
election, % 2-party vote in last
10 general elections
Activity: Is senator a full committee chairman,
ranking within party, no. of mass mail
pieces franked in 3rd & 4th quarters of
1985, no. of mass mail pieces franked
in 1st-4th quarters of 1986,1987,1988,
1989,1990,1991, no. of mass mail pieces
franked in 1st-3rd quarters of 1992, CQ
voting participation score 1983-1992.
Ratings: For every year 1983-1992:
. Americans for Democratic Action
. American Conservative Union
. AFL-CIO
. U.S. Chamber of Commerce
. National Journal economic policy
liberal score
. National Journal economic policy
conservative score
. National Journal social policy
liberal score
. National Journal social policy
conservative score
. National Journal foreign policy
liberal score
. National Journal foreign policy
conservative score
. CQ presidential support score
. CQ presidential opposition score
. CQ party unity support score
. CQ party unity opposition score
. CQ conservative coalition support
score
. CQ conservative coalition
opposition score
Pooled Senate:
2. [con't]
SOURCES: POLITICS IN AMERICA, THE NTH
CONGRESS, ALAN EHRENHALT ED.; ALMANAC OF
AMERICAN POLITICS, MICHAEL BARONE ET AL.;
UNPUBLISHED CBS BRIEFING BOOKS ON SENATE
ELECTIONS; RESPONSES TO CQ CANDIDATE
QUESTIONNAIRE MADE AVAILABLE BY PHIL DUNCAN
(POLITICAL EDITOR OF CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY
WEEKLY REPORT); AMERICA VOTES, RICHARD
SCAMMON ET AL.; REPORT OF THE SECRETARY OF
THE SENATE (MASS MAILING FIGURES);
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY ALMANAC; VARIOUS
ISSUES OF NATIONAL JOURNAL
3. Senate elections predictions and Senate candidates'
campaign managers, pollsters, and media consultants.
[V1388-1397].
VARIABLES: CQ election roundup projection
Early Cook Report projection of election
outcome
Late Cook Report projection of election
outcome
Roll Call projection of election outcome
democratic candidate's campaign manager
democratic candidate's pollster
democratic candidate's media consultant
republican candidate's campaign manager
republican candidate's pollster
republican candidate's media consultant
SOURCES: CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY SPECIAL
REPORTS; GRC COOK POLITICAL REPORT
(GOVERNMENT RESEARCH CORPORATION); ROLL
CALL; NATIONAL JOURNAL; CAMPAIGN INDUSTRY
NEWS; INFORMATION PROVIDED OVER TELEPHONE BY
STAFF AT THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATE
COMMITTEE.
4. Campaign spending by senate campaign candidates.
[V1398-1414].
Variables for democratic and republican
candidate each are:
- total campaign spending
- total campaign receipts
- % of total major party spending (by
dem; rep can be calculated)
- cash on hand
- non-individual, non-party receipts
(inc. PACs & committees)
- contributions from candidate
- party spending on behalf of candidate
- independent expenditures on behalf of
candidate
- independent expenditures in opposition
to candidate
SOURCE: FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSION.
5. State political, demographic, geographic and economic
data. [V1415-1470]
VARIABLES: No. congressional districts
No. democratic U.S. representatives
before election
No. democratic U.S. representatives
after election
State partisanship
State ideology
State democratic party organization
strength
State republican party organization
strength
Party ideology: weighted democratic
score
Party ideology: weighted republican
score
Clinton % of 2-party vote in 1992
Dukakis % of 2-party vote in 1988
Mondale % of 2-party vote in 1984
Pooled Senate:
5. [con't]
Carter % of 2-party vote in 1980
Carter % of 2-party vote in 1976
No. democrats, upper & lower state house
before & after election
No. republicans, upper & lower state
house before & after election
1988/1990/1992 Census voting age
population estimate
1987/1988/1990 population in thousands
% population increase 1980-1987/1980-
1988/1980-1992
1992 Census population in thousands
% Census population increase 1980-1992
% black 1980/1990
% asian and pacific islander 1980/1990
% spanish origin 1980/1990
% in metropolitan areas 1986/1988/1990
% born in state 1980/1990
% white collar occupations 1980/1990
% blue collar occupations 1980/1990
Square miles in state
% area farmed 1982/1990
Net total migration to state 1980-1986
% residents at current address 2 yrs. or
less 1980
State unemployment rate March,
1988/1990/1992
State unemployment rate June
1988/1990/1992
State unemployment rate September
1988/1990/1992
State unemployment rate December
1988/1990/1992
State unemployment rate December
1987/1989/1991
Total personal income - 1st quarter
1988/1990/1992
Total personal income - 2nd quarter
1988/1990/1992
Total personal income - 3rd quarter
1988/1990/1992
Total personal income - 4th quarter
1988/1990/1992
Total personal income - 4th quarter
1987/1989/1991
Tax burden per capita 1985
Violent crime rate 1987/1989/1991
% population with 1-3 yrs. college 1980
% population with 4+ yrs. college 1980
% population below poverty line 1980
% housing units rented 1980
Median family income
% population over age 64 1986/1988/1990
SOURCES: CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLLS; PARTY
ORGANIZATIONS IN AMERICAN POLITICS, CORNELIUS
COTTER ET AL.; PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES AND
THE DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC CHOICE, LARRY M.
BARTELS; FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSION;
CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY WEEKLY REPORT;
STATISTICAL ABSTRACT OF THE U.S., U.S. DEPT.
OF COMMERCE; THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN
POLITICS; POLITICS IN AMERICA, THE NTH
CONGRESS; MICHAEL HAGEN'S VOTER SUPPLEMENT
FILE, 1980 CURRENT POPULATION SURVEY, STATE
DATA PROGRAM OF UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
BERKELEY; BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS;
"REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PER CAPITA PERSON
INCOME CONTINUED TO WIDEN IN 1988,"
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE; CRIME IN THE U.S.
1988, FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION.
6. Background information about Democratic and Republican
candidates for the U.S. Senate. [V1471-1870].
SEE: 2., BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT
SENATORS
Pooled Senate:
7. Campaign content data. [V1871-1899]
Variables providing 7 topical mentions of
"positive" and "negative" campaign themes of the
democratic and republican Senate candidates.
SOURCE: MEASURES DERIVED BY RICHARD FENNO,
GARY JACOBSON, JONATHAN KRASNO, THOMAS MANN,
RAYMOND WOLFINGER, CULLED FROM: ACCOUNTS OF
SENATE ELECTIONS IN CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY'S
"SPECIAL REPORT," GRC COOK POLITICAL REPORT,
THE PRESIDENTIAL HOTLINE (DAILY), POLITICAL
REPORT.